The rate of decline of new daily infections in the U.S. has slowed. The numbers in some states continue dropping, others are experiencing a plateau, and numbers have increased a tiny bit in elsewhere.
Though public health officials won’t say it out loud, and the media will lie by omission, this is 100% expected.
As the harsh winter weather fades and spring is emerging, people are altering their behavioral patterns, which alters (to some extent) with whom they associate, which can result in a small uptick in new daily infections in any given area.
As states drop (or ease) various mandates, people quite naturally want their lives back to normal. This puts them in contact with more people than when they felt they needed to stay away from everyone else (whether due to mandates or personal concern). “Getting back to normal” can result in a small uptick in new daily infections in any given area.
While I’m sure the media will make much of the slowing rate of decline, deaths continue declining sharply. (The media is silent on that wonderful news.)
IMO, the big question is what we can expect moving forward. In order to understand that, let’s contrast March 2020 with March 2021. Without getting into “natural immunity”, which would make this overly complex, let's say that in March 2020 the entire U.S. population was the “susceptible pool”. If we use that construct for illustrative purposes, it looks like this...
Susceptible Pool = 331,000,000; Immune Pool = 0. Fertile ground for any infectious pathogen, right?
Because SARS-CoV-2 has an incredibly high asymptomatic rate I estimate that at least 270,000,000 Americans have already been infected, their bodies defeated the virus, they now have antibodies, and thus they cannot get or give the virus. (I suspect the number of persons infected over the last year is, in reality, higher than I’ve stated here.) That means in March 2021 it looks like this...
Susceptible Pool = 61,000,000; Immune Pool = 270,000,000. Quite a difference!
Phrased another way, in March 2020, 331,000,000 Americans could have become infected and infected others. In March 2021 just 61,000,000 can become infected and infect others - but only those within the susceptible pool. As this progression continues, the immune pool keeps growing and the susceptible pool keeps shrinking. (That’s how herd immunity works.)
If we factor in “natural immunity” [those who can be repeatedly exposed and never become infected], which exists at an unknowable percentage, which for today’s purpose we’ll call 50% of the remaining susceptible pool, then the true number of Americans remaining in the susceptible pool is 30,500,000; a bit less than 1/10 of what it was a year ago.
As I’ve been stating since January; all over but the shouting.
