I think its pretty clear that the Ukrainian situation would have been different. Putin could have lined up against the Ukraine at any time but it was only a few months after Biden took office that he began his big deployments. China is probably going to take out Taiwan here pretty soon, too. Neither China nor Russia dare waits too long. If 2022 goes big Republican, that could be a wrench in their works, and puts them on the threshold of Trump coming back into office as a realistic prospect. I think they want everything wrapped up by then.

But there could be other things besides American weakness that could be going on here. Biden has clearly been corrupted by financial dealings in both Ukraine and in China. I am convinced that pretty much everyone (except the American voter base and 'normal' people in other countries) understands that Biden is compromised. There could be blackmail involved, if it isn't involved already. Or, it could lead to an escalation in Ukraine in order to preserve Biden's financial interests there--if this is not already in play. It is hard to know, since Biden is not the only one compromised. The media, etc, are, as well.

I think China may have had plans to go after Taiwan but they didn’t expect the almost eager way in which the West laid the sanctions on Russia. Interestingly, back when the story was going around that Russia was going to ask China for weapons, Lavarov’s plane was en route to China. It turned around and went home halfway into an 8 hour flight. I don’t know what China was told or who told them, but something happened to cause China to start backing away from Russia.

That’s a Fox story about the plane turning around, but i watched it happen in real time on one of the flight trackers.

Ironically, that link has prominently displayed this headline: "Gen. Keane: What is happening to the Russians in Ukraine will not deter China"

I don't think Russia OR China is all that worried about the sanctions. I don't think Russia was all that surprised by them, tbh. Russia certainly didn't withdraw from the Kiev area because of them, and I suspect once the Mariposa situation is cleaned up, Russia will go back for Kiev. I don't see Putin stopping until he is absolutely confident that Ukraine won't join NATO--or he is stopped from stopping that, and I just don't see Ukraine being able to do that. Putin will just keep lobbing rockets if his soldiers can't do the trick. That brings us to the question of whether or not the West will put boots on the ground to prevent this final resolution.

To my understanding, there are two ideal seasons for invading Taiwan due to channel conditions, a month in the spring and a month in the fall. China is willing to write off whole cities filled with millions of people in them, so I don't think the financial hit of sanctions is of concern to them. If the West is mired in Ukraine, I think that will be perceived as working to their advantage.

Both Russia and China are now on record (with NK) as stating that sanctions are tantamount to an act of war. Both have their own cards yet to be played.