China is having its every 5 year congress this week. If Xi is 'elected' president for his third term Taiwan might be targeted soon. From what I've been able to gather, in the spring and Oct/Nov are the best conditions for a cross strait invasion. Plus, Xi will want to do such a thing while we have Brandon in office and won't want to risk having Trump in office at the time. If Xi is smart at all (he is) he knows that drawing the US into a conflict will improve the political position of whoever is in power, as Americans tend to back their leaders during a time of war. This would argue for a pre-2022 election invasion, as Xi certainly knows that Democrats are better for him than Republicans. Ie, an invasion would give Brandon a bump in the polls and possibly the Dems up for election, too.
On this reasoning, Oct 20th - Nov 1ish is the window. Next spring would be the next one.
The 2022 election rationale might be too nuanced for Xi to care about, but the presidential election in 2024 has got to be on his mind.
There are plenty of unknowns. For example, I personally believe that Brandon is fully compromised by China, and is prepared to bend over on command. At the same time, Brandon would face a lot of pressure to intervene, and he has said publicly, several times, that the US would intervene on Taiwan's behalf. I don't know that what China has over Brandon is greater than his ego. When people start thinking about their 'legacies' their analysis changes.
Which brings up Putin, who is also concerned about his legacy. The US has poured resources into Ukraine--making them unavailable to our forces in Taiwan. The US is effectively at war with Russia right now, and everyone knows it except the American public. Can the 'woke' US military fight a 2 front war? Xi might well reason that he's not going to get a better chance to find out.
The last unknown is whether or not there will be a 'Pearl Harbor' first strike. History shows that hitting America only arouses its anger such that eventually it hits back, and keeps on hitting, until the attacker is a bloody pulp. I doubt a direct attack on America, but then, if it was decisive enough... but that still leaves cyber attacks, etc.
You should always have emergency supplies on hand, but if you don't right now, I encourage you to make it an urgent priority.
